Lahar on Casita Volcano: The inevitability of a natural disaster

There has been a tremendous amount of commentary and even controversy surrounding the deadly mudslide in north-western Nicaragua that killed between 1,800-2,200 people, destroyed two villages, and became the rallying point for international environmentalists condemning Central American land use policies and deforestation. With the recent highly moving visit to the site by U.S. President Bill Clinton and subsequent international publicity, it may be time for a closer examination of what actually occurred at Casita on 30 October 1998. The following is a very preliminary assessment based on examination of satellite imagery (both visual and infrared), discussions with geologists, and first-hand examination of the slide site over the course of several visits. It is not intended as a scientific study.