Climate change impacts on the spatial extent of snow cover in the Australian Alps

Climate change impacts on the spatial extent of snow cover in the Australian Alps are examined using the Galloway snow model and the latest Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) climate change scenarios. These scenarios take into account a range of quantifiable uncertainties associated with projecting climate change and thus allow for a range of possible future climates for the region. Simulated impacts using a "best case scenario" are moderate: the area with simulated cover of more than 30 days declines by 18% by 2030 and 39% by 2070. Under a "worst case scenario" the reductions are very marked: 66% reduction by 2030, and 96% reduction by 2070. Comparisons are made with a similar study which used an earlier set of CSIRO climate change scenarios (Whetton et al., 1996). Reductions in the high case warming between the earlier and current CSIRO scenarios has led to some moderation in the worst case scenario impacts in the current study compared to Whetton et al. (1996). The best case scenario results are similar in the two studies. The current results still indicate the potential for significant, and possibly severe, decreases in snow cover in the Australian Alps in the decades to come. This would have ecological, hydrological and economic implications for the region.